Trump鈥檚 Medicaid Work Rules Force States To Scrap Plans and Rework Systems
The Trump administration鈥檚 rollout of a federal mandate that millions of Americans on Medicaid must work or risk losing health benefits will force states to scrap months of preparation, according to advocates for Medicaid enrollees and consultants advising states.
And they say an overhaul 鈥 less than seven months before states must start enforcing the requirement 鈥 will be costly.
by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services dictate many granular details about how the new work requirements will play out. They cover how states should check whether Medicaid enrollees are following the rules, and how people can claim an exemption so that their health benefits don鈥檛 hinge on work, community service, or going to school.
Next year, President Donald Trump鈥檚 One Big Beautiful Bill Act could require roughly across 42 states and the District of Columbia who receive Medicaid benefits to prove they鈥檙e working or participating in a similar activity to keep their health coverage 鈥 unless they qualify for an exemption.
Much of the verification will run through state computer systems that assess whether low-income people qualify for Medicaid and other safety net programs 鈥 technology often built and run by private companies under contracts routinely worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Many of those systems have a history of errors that can cut off benefits to eligible people.
For months, states have been communicating with federal regulators and rushing to build systems to comply with the looming mandates, said Kinda Serafi, a partner at the Manatt Health consulting and legal firm. The rules released this week represent a 鈥渟ignificant policy pivot鈥 from what states were expecting, Serafi said.
鈥淭he administration has actually taken what we know to be a tough situation and has just made it even worse,鈥 Serafi said. States had already committed to paying contractors tens of millions to adjust their systems.
After Trump signed his signature tax-and-spending bill into law last July, one of the most significant remaining questions was how much discretion the federal government would give states to define exemptions for people too sick to work. The 鈥渕edical frailty鈥 exemption allows a person to claim they have a health condition that prevents them from working at least 80 hours a month, as the law requires.
To qualify, a person generally must fit into at least one of five categories: They must be blind or disabled; have a substance use disorder; have a disabling mental disorder; have a physical, intellectual, or developmental disability that significantly impairs their daily life; or have a serious medical condition. States are not allowed to add categories.
Under the new regulations, CMS said having a medical condition alone isn鈥檛 sufficient to exempt someone from the work requirements. States must assess 鈥渢he severity of an individual鈥檚 condition鈥 to determine whether they can stay on Medicaid without working 鈥 a standard that makes it more difficult for enrollees to meet the criteria.
CMS officials did not list specific conditions that qualify for exemptions, but the agency did say homelessness can鈥檛 be a reason to claim that exemption because it is not a medical condition.
To implement the law, states 鈥渨ill have to undo work that they did,鈥 said , deputy director of Princeton University鈥檚 State Health and Value Strategies program, which works with state governments on various health coverage issues.
The Trump administration previously acknowledged that the work to upgrade state Medicaid eligibility systems to comply with the law is coming at a cost. In January, top CMS officials said government contractors, including Deloitte, Accenture, and Optum, and reduced rates through 2028 to help states adjust their systems.
The discounts 鈥渕ay be helpful鈥 in some states, but they鈥檙e 鈥渘ot going to be helpful across the board鈥 due to variations in state contracts, said , director of the State Health and Value Strategies program.
鈥淎nytime you have to go back and say, 鈥極ops, we need to reprogram this one thing,鈥 there鈥檚 a cost,鈥 Howard said.
States were prepared to create lists of conditions and diseases to qualify people for work requirement exemptions, according to health care experts advising them. Mining data to verify someone鈥檚 illness was already a tall order for states because the computer systems that determine whether someone is eligible for Medicaid often do not communicate with the systems that track medical claims.
America鈥檚 health care payment systems rely on a set of standardized codes that correspond to specific diagnoses.
But there鈥檚 no 鈥渃ode that designates that someone is too sick to work 鈥 that鈥檚 a subjective assessment,鈥 said Rachel Klein, deputy executive director of , a nonpartisan advocacy group for people with HIV. 鈥淭his is a recipe for disaster.鈥
The new federal standards pose immediate issues for Nebraska, which launched its Medicaid work requirement on May 1, eight months before the federally mandated deadline. Nebraska handles decisions on medical frailty differently than the Trump administration does.
Nebraska officials had already released a nearly of medical conditions that qualify as exemptions, such as types of cancer, dementia, autism, epilepsy, HIV, and Parkinson鈥檚 disease. The state, which relies on government workers to check Medicaid eligibility, doesn鈥檛 require a person to prove how sick they are.
But under Trump鈥檚 rules, people will have to show their qualifying illness is impeding their ability to work.
Now, Nebraska is 鈥済oing to have to go back and figure out how to assess whether all of these people are too sick to meet the requirement,鈥 Klein said.
Medicaid enrollees are slated to start losing coverage this summer under Nebraska鈥檚 early rollout.
Sarah Maresh, a program director with , an advocacy organization for people with low incomes, said the state should refrain from terminating people鈥檚 coverage until next year because of the changes it will need to make. State residents are already confused and scared, she said, and the new rule 鈥渕akes matters much worse.鈥
In response to several questions, Jeff Powell, a spokesperson for Nebraska鈥檚 Department of Health and Human Services, said the state is reviewing the new federal regulation to determine potential impacts.
The new federal standards will limit people鈥檚 ability to attest that they are medically frail starting in 2028 and will require documentation as proof, another change states weren鈥檛 expecting, Meuse said. had planned to allow applicants and enrollees to declare conditions themselves to get exemptions, according to 麻豆女优.
Striking the right balance of flexibility was an important part of deliberations when crafting these rules, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz said on a June 1 call with reporters. 鈥淭he mantra we kept coming back to was that we鈥檙e forgiving, but we鈥檙e not foolish,鈥 he said.
Trump officials wrote in the regulation that Medicaid work requirements have 鈥渢he potential to empower Medicaid beneficiaries鈥 by allowing them to 鈥渆scape isolation and dependency, build confidence, achieve self-sufficiency and prosperity, and improve health.鈥
Stephanie Burdick, a leader of the Protect Medicaid Utah coalition, disputed the premise.
鈥淚f they want to improve work opportunities or connection and decrease isolation and loneliness, they would be starting job programs and volunteer service programs,鈥 Burdick said. 鈥淭hey wouldn鈥檛 just be forcing more administrative burden onto people and then saying that it鈥檚 good for them.鈥
An estimated will become uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid work requirements, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
But with the new regulations, Howard said, there鈥檚 a risk of 鈥渢hat number being even higher.鈥