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Events have moved faster than I thought possible. I have become cautiously optimistic. Experts are saying, with genuine confidence, that the pandemic in the United States will be over far sooner than they expected, possibly by the middle of next year. That is still some time off. Experts warn that this autumn and winter may be grim; indoor dining, in-classroom schooling, contact sports, jet travel and family holiday dinners may all drive up infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Cases are rising in most states, and some hospitals already face being overwhelmed. (Donald G. McNeil Jr., 10/12)

The truth is that using lockdowns to halt the spread of the coronavirus was never a good idea. If they have any utility at all, it is short term: to help ensure that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed in the early stages of the pandemic. But the long-term shutdowns of schools and businesses, and the insistence that people stay indoors — which almost every state imposed at one point or another — were examples of terribly misguided public policy. It is likely that when the history of this pandemic is told, lockdowns will be viewed as one of the worst mistakes the world made. (Joe Nocera, 10/13)

Many of the businesses that are closing will never come back, and some of the lives that are being upended will probably stay upside down forever. But even before you consider the long-term effects, this is all pure loss; there’s no cosmic refund office where we can all demand our lost year back. So it’s quite legitimate for President Trump and his supporters to ask whether staying in our houses and waiting for a vaccine isn’t actually making us worse off — especially the large number of “us” who can’t do professional office jobs from home. And because the nature of infectious disease means such decisions have to be made collectively, we should have that conversation, rather than attempt to forestall it with a wall of outrage, as much of the professional class has been doing for the past seven months. (Megan McArdle, 10/13)

Did President Trump return to work too soon after coming down with Covid-19? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in August updated its guidelines for health-care workers recovering from the disease. The CDC recommends that for those with mild to moderate illness, returning to work is permissible when “at least 10 days have passed since symptoms first appeared and at least 24 hours have passed since last fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath) have improved.” The CDC also notes that “a test-based strategy is no longer recommended because, in the majority of cases, it results in excluding from work health care professionals who continue to shed detectable SARS-COV-2 RNA but are no longer infectious.” No one would deny that doctors, nurses and support staff are essential workers, but it’s obviously unwise to return to a hospital or medical office if you are still contagious with Covid. Few would deny, either, that the president is an essential worker. (Marc Siegel, 10/13)

In September, the Co-Immunity Project of the University of Louisville conducted an extensive survey of the spread of coronavirus infection throughout Jefferson County. Unlike other initiatives and facilities that test only those suspecting an infection, the Co-Immunity Project invited participants from different parts of the county to ensure that individuals of different age, race and sex, and those living in different neighborhoods are proportionally represented. The project investigators measured the level of antibodies in the blood, which is a sign that an individual may have been exposed to the virus in the past few months. After testing nearly 2,000 individuals, the study found that nearly 4.4% of the population of the county, or approximately 34,000 people may have been exposed to the virus. Given that only 17,500 cases had been reported in the county till September, the findings of the Co-Immunity Project suggest that nearly half of the individuals who have the virus are not getting tested. In addition, the study found that the rate of infection was 10% to 12% in west Louisville, compared with 2% to 4% in other parts of the county. (Aruni Bhatnagar and Ben Chandler, 10/13)

Strikingly large shares of Black Americans say they would be reluctant to get a coronavirus vaccine — even if it was free and had been deemed safe by scientists, according to a new nationwide survey from �鶹Ů�� and The Undefeated. Why it matters: The findings reflect well-founded distrust of government and health care institutions, and they underscore the need for credible outreach efforts when a vaccine is distributed. Otherwise, distribution could fail to effectively reach the Black community, which has been disproportionately affected by coronavirus. (Drew Altman, 10/14)

The confusing array of ways to measure the coronavirus pandemic — with some indicators going up while others go down and asterisks attached to many measures — makes it difficult to feel certain on any given day about whether things are getting better, worse or neither. But there’s no doubt that Ohio has a lot of virus-fighting left to do. Monday’s headline figure was as simple as it was grim: The number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Ohio topped 5,000. That puts the state squarely in the middle of the pack for deaths per 100,000 people, at 24th. And, less than seven months into the pandemic in the U.S., it puts COVID-19 on a course to kill nearly as many Ohioans in a year as lung cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer combined. (10/14)

It was a great relief to learn that Missouri did not, in fact, see a one-day jump of 5,000 new coronavirus infections on Saturday, as the state’s new online pandemic data dashboard briefly reported. The Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services subsequently admitted that a technical error on its database coughed up the erroneous number. (10/13)

We have entered the age of megafires. Since 1970, yearly fire seasons in California have grown by 78 days. The amount of land burned annually across the Western U.S. has doubled since 1980. Last week, the August Complex fire in Northern California set a record for the state, burning more than 1 million acres. That record will probably not stand for long. These extreme fires are caused by two main factors: fire suppression and climate change. The dangerous consequences of fire suppression are now widely acknowledged. But the role of climate change on wildfires — more heat, less rainfall and lower humidity in fire-prone regions — is either being minimized or pushed from the frame. (Jordan Thomas, 10/14)

As our nation continues to confront the ramifications of a global pandemic, the stigma around mental health and addiction seems to be dissipating. People are talking, opening up to friends and family, and finally realizing it’s OK to not be OK. This type of awareness is a major step forward for a nation that saw nearly 72,000 overdose deaths in 2019 and more than 48,000 deaths from suicide in 2018. (Darrell Steinberg and Patrick J. Kennedy, 10/14)