Health Experts Link Rise In Arizona COVID Cases To End Of Stay-At-Home Order

By Will Stone

6 years ago

With new daily coronavirus cases聽 in at least two dozen states, an explosion of new infections in Arizona is stretching some hospitals and alarming public health experts who link the surge in cases to the state鈥檚 lifting of a stay-at-home order a month ago.

Arizona has emerged as one of the country鈥檚 newest coronavirus hot spots, with the weekly average of daily cases聽聽from two weeks ago. The total number of people hospitalized is climbing, too.

Over the past week, Arizona has seen an average of more than 1,300 new COVID-19 cases each day.

After the state鈥檚 largest hospital system聽聽about a聽聽of ICU beds, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, pushed back on claims that the health care system could soon be overwhelmed.

鈥淭he entire time we鈥檝e been focused on a possible worst-case scenario with surge capacity for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators,鈥� Ducey 聽reporters on Thursday. 鈥淭hose are not needed or necessary right now.鈥�

While he acknowledged a spike in positive cases, Ducey said a second stay-at-home order was 鈥渘ot under discussion.鈥�

鈥淲e put the stay-at-home order there so we could prepare for what we are going through,鈥� he said.

Some states have reopened more slowly with a set of specific benchmarks for different regions, but Arizona took a more aggressive approach.

The state began easing restrictions on businesses in early May and lifted its statewide聽聽order after May 15. Under Arizona鈥檚 reopening plan, businesses are advised to follow federal guidance on social distancing.

There is also聽 for everyone to wear masks in public.

Public health experts agree: The timing of this spike reflects the state鈥檚 reopening.

鈥淧erhaps, Arizona will be a warning sign to other areas,鈥� said聽, an epidemiologist at the University of Arizona. 鈥淲e never had that consistent downward trend that would signal it鈥檚 time to reopen and we have everything in place to do it safely.鈥�

Before Arizona lifted its stay-at-home order, only about聽 of COVID-19 tests registered as positive. On Monday, that number was .

A slower reopening gives public health agencies time to identify whether cases are rising and then respond with contact tracing and isolating those who are infected.

鈥淲ith a fast, rapid reopening, we don鈥檛 have the time to mobilize those resources,鈥� said Ellingson.

Maricopa County, home to about 60% of the state鈥檚 population, has contact tracing in recent weeks, but it may not have enough capacity if the surge in cases continues.

said the spike in Arizona, as well as in parts of Texas such as Houston, Dallas and Austin, is the consequence of removing restrictions too quickly and without a public health system that can keep pace.

鈥淚t was just 鈥榦pen it up鈥� and then more or less business as usual, with a little bit of window dressing,鈥� said Hotez, the dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. 鈥淭his is not an abstract number of cases. We鈥檙e seeing people pile into intensive care units.鈥�

Arizona鈥檚 governor has also faced聽聽from the mayors of Arizona鈥檚 two biggest cities for not putting in place more stringent requirements.

鈥淭here is a pandemic and it鈥檚 spreading uncontrollably,鈥� said聽 Regina Romero, a Democrat. Ducey, she said, 鈥渋s just putting up his hands and saying 鈥榯he spread is happening and we just have to go about our business.鈥欌€�

And the governor鈥檚 executive order forbids local governments from implementing their own extra measures, which adds to Romero鈥檚 frustration. Texas has a similar measure.

鈥淲hat he did was pretty much tie the hands of mayors and public health officials,鈥� Romero said.

Arizona鈥檚 hospital industry has tried to聽fears that it鈥檚 on the verge of a crisis. Hospitals are still performing elective surgeries.

鈥淚t鈥檚 very unfortunate because hospitals right now in Arizona are quite busy with elective procedures,鈥� said, a Phoenix-based epidemiologist with George Mason University. 鈥淵ou throw in increasing cases of COVID, and that鈥檚 going to very much stress your hospital systems.鈥�

Phoenix鈥檚 triple-digit summer temperatures actually may fuel the spread of the virus. People forgo outdoor activities and retreat to air-conditioned indoor spaces, where the risk of transmitting the virus goes up significantly.

鈥淢y concern is we鈥檙e going to see a lot more people in close quarters for prolonged periods of time,鈥� Popescu said.

Since the stay-at-home order was lifted, Popescu and others say they鈥檝e seen people returning to a pre-pandemic mindset, neglecting to wear masks or maintain social distance. 听辞蹿听聽bars have only propelled these fears.

On Thursday, however, Arizona鈥檚 top doctor stressed there were also dangers to keeping the state on lockdown, including the mental health effects of loneliness and isolation.

鈥淲e know that it鈥檚 in the community. We are not going to be able to stop the spread. And so we can鈥檛 stop living as well,鈥� said聽, health director for the Arizona Department of Health Services.

But Dr. Quinn Snyder, an emergency medicine physician in Mesa, Arizona, said there needs to be more consistent messaging on public health measures like wearing masks.

鈥淔rankly, I just think a wholesale reevaluation of where we鈥檙e at is critical right now, but I can tell you that we鈥檙e not doing nearly enough,鈥� said Snyder, who has seen the uptick in seriously ill COVID-19 patients firsthand.

鈥淚f we continue to head down this path, the virus will press our health care facilities beyond capacity, where we鈥檙e going to have to be making tough decisions like聽聽and who doesn鈥檛.鈥�

This story is part of a reporting partnership between NPR and Kaiser Health News.聽