It鈥檚聽February,聽so聽open enrollment for the聽Affordable Care Act聽is over.听We鈥檙e聽getting聽the聽first glimpses聽of聽how sign-ups are shaking out聽after the聽expiration聽of enhanced subsidies that helped most people with their premium costs.听
While more Americans enrolled than聽, the number聽was聽聽what聽it was聽at the same time last year. And experts say聽it will聽be聽months聽until聽the numbers聽are final.听The timing聽will depend on聽how many of those people聽who signed up for coverage聽actually pay their premiums and remain enrolled.听
In coming weeks, 鈥渃onsumers may find they really can鈥檛 afford the premiums and cancel their plans, while carriers may also cancel coverage for nonpayment,鈥� said Pat Kelly, executive director of Your Health Idaho, a state-based ACA marketplace, during a Jan. 22 call with reporters.听
The drop comes after several years of record-breaking enrollment, with聽24.2聽million聽sign-ups for the 2025 enrollment year.听Enrollment growth took off after enhanced subsidies聽鈥斅爓hich lowered the amount most households had to pay聽out聽of their own income toward premiums and removed an聽upper-income聽cap聽鈥斅爓ent into effect during the Biden administration. Lawmakers, in adopting the聽enhanced subsidies, set聽an expiration聽date of Dec. 31, 2025.听
Congressional debate聽over extending聽those聽more generous subsidies聽was heated, even聽.听Now, the subsidies are back to their original level,聽and people who earn more than聽four聽times the federal poverty rate (about聽$62,600聽for an individual or聽$84,600聽for a couple)聽can鈥檛聽qualify for any at all.听
聽in most states this year, with聽the biggest drop in North Carolina, where sign-ups fell by聽nearly 22%,聽.听
In a few places 鈥� including New Mexico, Texas, and Maryland, as well as the District of Columbia 鈥� the number of people selecting ACA plans increased.听
The jump was largest in New Mexico, with its聽tally聽of people selecting plans up by聽nearly聽18%. Increases were in the single digits in the other聽states聽and Washington, D.C.听
New Mexico 鈥� uniquely 鈥� used its own tax dollars to fully offset the loss of the more generous federal tax subsidies for all consumers.听, including California, Colorado, Maryland, and Washington, used state money to help some enrollees.听
We鈥檒l聽keep watching to see how this unfolds over the coming weeks.
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