A growing economy and an Obamacare spending surge, many suspected, had ended five years of moderate health-spending growth.
Early government figures showed medical-cost acceleration at the beginning of the year. 鈥淗ealth care spending rose at the fastest pace since 1980 in the first quarter as the new health insurance law prompted many more Americans to visit doctors and hospitals,鈥� 聽USA Today among others a month ago.
Not really.
The preliminary estimates that prompted the story were off. Hospital revenue fell in 2014鈥檚 first quarter compared with the final three months of 2013, the Census Bureau . So did revenue for medical labs and outpatient care.
Fees and insurance reimbursements collected by doctor offices 鈥� which some thought would be swamped by patients newly covered under the Affordable Care Act 鈥� fell by 6 percent from the fourth quarter to the first. (Those numbers aren鈥檛 adjusted for normal seasonal fluctuations, but total first-quarter health spending fell even after accounting for seasonal differences, JPMorgan Chase economist Dan Silver calculated in a note to clients.)
Even for a full year 鈥� from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014 鈥� revenue for health care and social assistance rose only 2.9 percent.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 just surprisingly low,鈥� says Charles Roerhig, director of the Altarum Institute鈥檚 Center for Sustainable Health Spending. 鈥淭his confirms the skepticism that has been expressed about the acceleration鈥� suggested in earlier data.
Health spending, which has pressured taxpayers, consumers and employers by growing faster than the economy for decades, had slowed to a little less than 聽starting in 2009. Some thought it might pop to 6 percent this year, Roerhig said.
There鈥檚 still no guarantee that it won鈥檛, even though many suspect that increasingly higher out-of-pocket expenses for consumers and the health law鈥檚 cost-control measures will help 鈥渂end the cost curve鈥� for medicine over the longer term.
After all, Wednesday鈥檚 Census figures don鈥檛 include prescription drugs, some of which have put on government and insurance budgets in recent months.
May鈥檚 jobs report showed an uptick in health employment, which tends to track health spending. Especially bad winter weather probably had more than a little to do with revenue declines for doctors and hospitals in the first quarter. Wednesday鈥檚 data aren鈥檛 final.
And many people buying new plans under the health law didn鈥檛 enroll until the first quarter was almost over. Subsidized insurance sold through online exchanges was available starting Jan. 1, but millions didn鈥檛 sign up until just before (and a little after) the March 31 deadline.
That hardly allowed time to line up at the clinic.
Says Larry Levitt, Kaiser Family Foundation senior vice president: 鈥淕iven the timing of when people are getting covered, I wouldn鈥檛 expect any bump until the second quarter.鈥�
Let the debate continue.
Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent program of the Kaiser Family Foundation.