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Washington’s $10 Billion Search For Health Care’s Next Big Ideas

The Affordable Care Act was supposed to mend what President Barack Obama called a broken health care system, but its best-known programs 鈥 online insurance and expanded Medicaid for the poor 鈥 affect a relatively small portion of Americans.

Washington's $10 Billion Search For Health Care's Next Big Ideas

A federal office you鈥檝e probably never heard of is supposed to fix health care for everybody else.

The law created the to launch experiments in every state, changing the way doctors and hospitals are paid, building networks between caregivers and training them to intervene before chronic illness gets worse.

One example: George Washington University鈥檚 $1.9 million award to improve care and cut costs for at-home dialysis patients. Another: CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield鈥檚 $24 million grant to reduce unnecessary hospital visits for chronically ill Medicare patients.

The center鈥檚 ten-year, $10 billion budget is the largest ever devoted to transforming care. In several states the office is working to overhaul medicine for nearly all residents 鈥 not just those with government Medicare and Medicaid coverage.

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Every few months it awards test grants of $3 million or $10 million each 鈥 or sometimes tens of millions 鈥 to community groups, clinics, hospitals, insurance companies, nursing homes and states. Its programs touch millions of patients. Hundreds of organizations have gotten money. More than $2 billion has been doled out or committed since 2011.

One of the biggest experiments is the center itself. Skeptics, including Republicans but also those who support the health law, wonder if it鈥檚 up to the task.

鈥淲hile I certainly appreciate innovation in the delivery of health care, the CMMI is just another big government bureaucracy created by Obamacare that costs billions and duplicates other efforts,鈥 Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch, ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said through a spokesman. Hatch mused at a hearing last year whether the center鈥檚 hundreds of tests represent 鈥渂arely controlled chaos.鈥

Even policy pros who hope the innovation lab succeeds wonder if its investment will pay off and complain that it is slow to disclose information on spending and results.

鈥淭his is absolutely necessary鈥 to try to change how care is bought and delivered, says Christopher Koller, president of the Milbank Memorial Fund, a nonprofit that works to improve medical decision making. 鈥淚s this the right way to do it? A whole bunch of experiments? Is the innovation center adequately resourced in an administrative way to do this? The jury is still out on this.鈥

Dr. Patrick Conway, the top Department of Health and Human Services official who runs the center, calls it an underappreciated and 鈥渆ssential鈥 part of the health law. 鈥淚t鈥檚 incredibly critical,鈥 he says.

The office鈥檚 goal is nothing less than health care鈥檚 three pots of gold over the rainbow: making medicine less of an ordeal, improving patients鈥 health and controlling the spiraling costs that burden taxpayers, employers and consumers.

Backers compare it to a venture-capital fund that can finance the next big idea or Lockheed Martin鈥檚 鈥渟kunk works鈥 for developing advanced jets. Its programs go far beyond the 鈥渁ccountable care organizations鈥 that are perhaps its best-known experiments.

With a staff of 265 and growing, CMMI must not only administer ACOs and other reimbursement tests that reward quality care at lower cost. It also manages hundreds of grants and dozens of contractors hired to monitor and evaluate the programs.

Projects tend to focus on people with expensive diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart failure and schizophrenia. In one round of grants, awardees were urged to deploy projects 鈥渁s rapidly as possible鈥 and show results within six months.

The Johns Hopkins University for East Baltimore鈥檚 chronically sick and mentally ill. An Asian-American community group got $2.7 million to help low-income Californians navigate the medical system. The University of Tennessee got $3 million to help ensure repeat hospital patients in Memphis stay on their medications after discharge. Intermountain Health Care got $9.7 million to test software that forecasts the best ways for caregivers to interact with patients.

Many efforts don鈥檛 just involve the elderly Medicare and poor Medicaid patients in HHS鈥 primary insurance programs. Six states including Maine, Arkansas and Oregon to involve commercial insurers and their members as well as government programs in trials to improve health and control costs.

Dozens of states are talking to CMMI about ways of improving care for their entire populations, Conway said.聽 More grants are on the way.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot going on there,鈥 says Dr. Mark McClellan, who ran HHS Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) under President George W. Bush. 鈥淭hey have far more [innovation] money than Medicare and CMS have ever had before and a far-broader mandate to try out and expand models.鈥

Even so, devoting $1 billion per year over a decade to innovation is a tiny outlay for a system that spends $1 trillion every year on Medicare and Medicaid, says Conway. Supporters say CMMI promises to eventually save taxpayers far more than its $10 billion price tag.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 like a drop in the bucket 鈥 a cynic would say a low level of investment,鈥 said Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a former White House adviser who worked to include the innovation center in the health law.

In a health system as those in other countries and where large portions of spending are estimated to be or , policy experts have long recommended such research. The idea is to learn whether investment in coordination of nurses, computers, new payment incentives, home caregivers and other changes saves more in unnecessary and overly expensive care than it costs.

Tests are supposed to take several years. Contractors paid by CMMI monitor the grant recipients and programs to determine whether successful results could be expanded. Under the health law HHS can broaden innovations to government programs without seeking permission from Congress.

Conway points to the center鈥檚 partnership for patients, a national initiative to cut costs and reduce in-hospital harm, as an early success. Hospitals in the program share ideas on avoiding catheter and blood-line infections, guarding against patient falls and bedsores and building community networks to reduce expensive readmissions.聽

Analysis by CMMI and its contractors shows that partnership for patients has already lowered readmission rates, cut hospital-acquired infections and other injuries 鈥渇or the first time in history,鈥 and saved 15,000 lives and $4 billion, he said.

Another success, Conway says, is the , an early effort to induce care providers to improve quality and control cost through financial incentives. The program saved $147 million in its first year, according to HHS, and it鈥檚 鈥渉ighly likely the second year鈥檚 results will also be positive,鈥 Conway said.

But information is limited even for programs whose results have been announced. HHS how it calculated ACO savings or details on how individual health systems performed.

For scores of other efforts there is even less information. Contractors hired to monitor and evaluate projects are prohibited from disclosing data to anyone other than CMMI. The health law requires HHS to disclose evaluation reports on its tests 鈥渋n a timely fashion,鈥 but so far the innovation center itself is largely silent.

One reason is that it鈥檚 early, officials say. There鈥檚 no reason to publish results in the first or second year of a three-year study, they say.

鈥淲e are not at the point of drawing conclusions at all,鈥 said Lorenzo Moreno, who leads a team at Mathematica Policy Research that is evaluating experiments in primary care financed with CMMI dollars. 鈥淲e are still very much in the early stages of processing the data.鈥

Another reason is the political risk of revealing the inevitable investments that aren鈥檛 working.

HHS officials concede that some projects will fail. But even those will produce good information on what doesn鈥檛 work, said Conway, a medical doctor who once worked for management consultants McKinsey & Co.

鈥淚f every single model met the criteria [for quality and cost goals] then we鈥檙e not being innovative enough,鈥 he said. 鈥淪o by definition there should be some models that are pushing the envelope, that may not succeed.鈥

But the administration is wary of giving Republicans another political weapon like Solyndra, the failed solar-panel manufacturer that cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.

鈥淵ou get government agencies very gun-shy about having a program where some of the applicants might fail,鈥 Emanuel said. 鈥淓very failure is going to be a front-page story about government malfeasance.鈥

Even so, independent researchers say they鈥檙e frustrated by the information blanket over the most ambitious attempt ever to test new kinds of payment and care management.

鈥淚f you don鈥檛 know whether something isn鈥檛 working, then you can鈥檛 make an interim fix,鈥 said Christopher Langston, program director at the John A. Hartford Foundation, a nonprofit that works to improve care for seniors. Langston says he supports CMMI but adds: 鈥淚t is incumbent upon the government to share publicly the results of work that taxpayer money is funding.鈥

The innovation center has already stopped funding for some grants that didn鈥檛 meet early goals, Conway said.

鈥淲e take the direction of Congress 鈥 that the goal was to test these models, to expand the successful ones, but also to terminate unsuccessful ones 鈥 very seriously,鈥 he said.

But the department would not disclose the identity of聽recipients who have been cut off. Nor would it identify independent researchers with whom it says it has shared interim data.

There is also concern about the capacity of CMMI to manage its programs and expand the ones that work. Conway, also CMS chief medical officer, took over CMMI last year after its previous director, Dr. Richard Gilfillan, resigned to run a Michigan hospital system.

Conway is an 鈥渆xceptional鈥 leader, says Robert Kocher, a venture capitalist and another former White House adviser who helped launch the health law. As for the center鈥檚 chances of success, he says, 鈥渋t comes down to people. Has CMMI recruited people who are capable of managing across these areas and who will have insights on what are the most effective approaches? That鈥檚 going to be a constant tension.鈥

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