Last year, the that in 2010 the number of uninsured rose by 1 million to 49.9 million while the rate remained flat at 16.3 percent.聽 In 2002,聽 about 40 million people were uninsured.

Most experts say to聽expect a slight rise in the number of uninsured in 2011.

Although聽the economy was still rocky last year, unemployment fell聽from 9.4 percent to 8.5 percent. Typically, as unemployment rises, so does the uninsured rate because people lose their jobs and the health coverage that came with it.聽聽On the other hand,聽state Medicaid rolls聽grew in 2011, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years. Typically, Medicaid enrollment and the uninsured rate grow together as they reflect the state of the economy.

Another聽factor that聽could lower the numbers聽is聽the provision in the federal health law allowing young people to remain on their parents’ health plans until age 26, which聽according to the Obama administration has helped more than 3 million young adults gain coverage.

“I expect (the number of uninsured) will go up a bit, but not a lot,” said John Holahan, director of the health policy research center at the Urban Institute. He noted employer coverage聽is likely to fall for low-wage workers as the economy remains sluggish.

Vernon Smith, managing principal at consulting firm Health Management Associates, agreed. “I’d expect a rise, continuing the trend related to continued erosion of employer-sponsored health insurance, as fewer businesses offer health coverage,” he said. In case the number drops, he said credit will be聽due to the health law provision allowing young adults to remain on their parents’ insurance.

The bet from Ken Thorpe, chairman of health policy and management at Emory’s Rollins School of Public Health: “I think the share of uninsured聽population remains about 16.3 percent — but total number tops 50 million — slight increase.”

If聽 the number of uninsured does rise, conservatives will say President Barack Obama’s health law has failed. If the number goes down, Obama supporters will credit the new law.

However, the聽data won’t聽be that simply explained. For one thing, the main coverage expansion provisions in the law don’t start until 2014. And to make things more complicated, the Census Bureau this year will make some changes in its methodology that聽will affect the number for 2011 and also likely result in a revised number for聽 2010 .

So what’s your guess on the number聽of聽uninsured?

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