Californians on Tuesday elected a governor who campaigned for a complete overhaul of how people get their health coverage 鈥 but they shouldn鈥檛 hold their breath.
Rather, as Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom and the Democratic-controlled legislature take steps to provide more people with health insurance, they'll likely approach it piecemeal over several years.
Newsom himself is already tempering expectations about California鈥檚 move to a single-payer system, saying it will take more than the will of one person to realize.
鈥淚鈥檓 not going to hesitate to be bold on this issue, and I also want to set expectations,鈥 Newsom told reporters last week at a campaign stop in Sacramento. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a multiyear process.鈥
The Democratic lieutenant governor Republican John Cox in the governor鈥檚 race Tuesday, with Newsom vowing to stand up to President Donald Trump and restore the 鈥淐alifornia Dream鈥 by addressing affordable housing, health care and income inequality in the nation鈥檚 most populous state.
Newsom鈥檚 views are in stark contrast to Cox鈥檚, who maintained that government should largely stay out of health care. The free-market businessman said single-payer would send health care costs soaring while diminishing quality, that it 鈥渋s a sure way to destroy the California economy.鈥
Like many Democrats, Newsom has described health care as a right and vowed to defend the Affordable Care Act as governor. He also criticized the legislature last year when it held up a single-payer bill that would have created one government-run public insurance program for all Californians.
He won the endorsement from the politically powerful California Nurses Association for https://vimeo.com/267660479
target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vigorously advocating
single-payer. Going slow on single-payer could test his relationship with the union, which launched a against the Democratic state Assembly speaker when he shelved the measure last year.
It could also upset progressive Democrats and donors who are counting on action.
鈥淭his is the governor who has the best shot to get this done,鈥 said Stephanie Roberson, the union鈥檚 director of government relations. 鈥淚t takes political will and courage, and I鈥檓 going to cash in on what he said to my association.鈥
Now Newsom鈥檚 attitude is cautious 鈥 many say realistic 鈥 even in a state that aims to set national trends and relishes its role at the forefront of the resistance to the Trump administration.
Last week, Newsom called single-payer the most 鈥渆ffective and efficient鈥 strategy to achieve universal coverage, but he questioned whether it could be achieved at the state level, given the Trump administration鈥檚 opposition to the concept.
Trump鈥檚 top Medicare and Medicaid official, Seema Verma, last summer the idea that the federal government would grant the essential exemptions from federal rules to try single-payer, which she called 鈥渦naffordable鈥 and 鈥渟omething that鈥檚 not going to work.鈥 The exemptions, or waivers, are necessary because the state relies heavily on federal health care dollars that would be needed to pay single-payer costs.
Undaunted, the California Nurses Association said it intends to bring another single-payer bill before the legislature next year and has launched a national campaign to pass single-payer in other states and convince Congress of its merits.
But it鈥檚 unlikely that a single-payer bill will make it to Newsom鈥檚 desk next year, in part due to the price tag: A single-payer system could cost an estimated annually. Lawmakers earlier this year to study the feasibility of a publicly funded health insurance plan, and its findings aren鈥檛 due until 2021 鈥 giving the new governor and lawmakers time to punt on the issue.
Still, Democrats who head the key legislative health committees see Newsom as a partner who will be more engaged on health care than fellow Democrat Gov. Jerry Brown has been these past eight years.
鈥淗ealth care has not been one of the issues that he鈥檚 been particularly focused on,鈥 Assemblyman Jim Wood, chairman of the Assembly Health Committee, said of Brown. 鈥淚 think we鈥檝e missed some opportunities to really move forward on some policies that would be good for all Californians.鈥
Brown this year measures that would have expanded health care coverage to some low-income unauthorized immigrants 鈥 not because he philosophically opposed the idea, lawmakers say, but because it would have required new state spending.
He also raised cost concerns about bills that would have provided state-funded tax credits and subsidies to people who buy coverage through Covered California, the state鈥檚 insurance exchange.
With a new governor, those proposals are back on the table. Newsom was, after all, the San Francisco mayor on the nation鈥檚 first universal health care program for city residents without insurance, including undocumented immigrants. And, as he has reminded reporters, he did it during a recession.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a question of what do you value, what you prioritize,鈥 he said last week when asked how the state could afford both universal health care and his call for universal preschool.
Newsom鈥檚 campaign did not respond to questions about how he would expand coverage absent single-payer. But, earlier this year, his spokesman that proposals to give coverage to undocumented immigrants and earmarking state dollars to help consumers buy insurance coverage were 鈥渢wo major parts鈥 of his plan to deliver health coverage to all state residents. The state鈥檚 estimated 1.8 million unauthorized immigrants, for example, make up roughly 59 percent of the state鈥檚 remaining uninsured residents, according to .
The Democratic-dominated legislature would have to approve these moves.
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to be looking at a variety of ways that we might be able to get everyone covered,鈥 Wood said. But, he added, 鈥渋t will be significantly expensive to do that.鈥
Wood and state Sen. Richard Pan, chair of the Senate Health Committee, said lawmakers should look at the structural issues in health care 鈥 how prices for services and pharmaceuticals are regulated and how efficiencies, improved access and curbs on costly care of chronic diseases might be achieved.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 clear the health care landscape is a focal point for the California legislature,鈥 said Erin Trish, associate director of health policy at University of Southern California鈥檚 Schaeffer Center. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 have to push for a single-payer system to push for expanded coverage.鈥
Expanding health care coverage would require more state spending, but that wouldn鈥檛 necessarily mean a hit to the state economy, experts said.
After California implemented the Affordable Care Act (albeit with significant federal assistance), the state鈥檚 economy continued to grow and the number of uninsured residents fell to 7.2 percent in 2017, according to the .
鈥淲e鈥檝e expanded coverage and our economy has continued to flourish,鈥 said Dr. Andrew Bindman, a primary care physician who is also a professor at the Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies at the University of California-San Francisco, who helped draft the federal health care law. 鈥淭hese things are achievable, and I think California is a model of that.鈥
Pan, the chair of the Senate Health Committee, said he looks forward to engaging Newsom, someone who proved he could move beyond rhetoric by signing the San Francisco measure that offered more city residents health coverage.
鈥淗opefully, we have an opportunity to get something done,鈥 Pan said.
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