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Greg Herbruck knew 6.5 million of his birds needed to die, and fast.

But the CEO of wasn’t sure how the family egg producer (one of the largest in the U.S., in business for over three generations) was going to get through it, financially or emotionally. One staffer broke down in Herbruck’s office in tears.

“The mental toll on our team of dealing with that many dead chickens is just, I mean, you can't imagine it,” Herbruck said. “I didn’t sleep. Our team didn’t sleep.”

The stress of watching tens of thousands of sick birds die of avian flu each day, while millions of others waited to be euthanized, kept everyone awake.

In April 2024, as his first hens tested positive for the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus, Herbruck turned to the tried-and-true U.S. Department of Agriculture that helped end the 2014-15 bird flu outbreak, which was the largest in the U.S. until now.

Within 24 to 48 hours of the first detection of the virus, state and federal animal health officials work with farms to cull infected flocks to reduce the risk of transmission. That’s followed by extensive disinfection and months of surveillance and testing to make sure the virus isn’t still lurking somewhere on-site.

Since then, egg farms have had to invest millions of dollars into biosecurity. For instance, employees shower in and shower out, before they start working and after their shifts end, to prevent spreading any virus. But their efforts have not been enough to contain the outbreak that started three years ago.

This time, the risk to human health is only growing, experts say. Sixty-six of the 67 total human cases in the United States have been just , including the nation’s , reported last month.

“The last six months have accelerated my concern, which was already high,” said Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious diseases physician and the founding director of Boston University's Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases.

Controlling this virus has become more challenging, precisely because it’s so entrenched in the global environment, such as dairy cows, and affecting roughly in commercial and backyard flocks in the U.S.

Because laying hens are so susceptible to the H5N1 virus, which can wipe out entire flocks within days of the first infection, egg producers have been on the front lines in the fight against various bird flu strains for years. But this moment feels different. Egg producers and the American Egg Board, an industry group, are begging for a new prevention strategy.

Many infectious disease experts agree that the risks to human health of continuing current protocols are unsustainable, because of the strain of bird flu driving this outbreak.

“The one we’re battling today is unique,” said , former director of the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory at the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service and a leading national expert in avian influenza.

“It's not saying for sure there's gonna be a pandemic” of H5N1, Swayne said, “but it's saying the more human infections, the spreading into multiple mammal species is concerning.”

For Herbruck, it feels like war. Ten months after Herbruck’s Poultry Ranch was hit, the company is still rebuilding its flocks and rehired most of the 400 workers it laid off.

Still, he and his counterparts in the industry live in fear, watching other farms get hit two, even three times in the past few years.

“I call this virus a terrorist,” he said. “And we are in a battle and losing, at the moment.”

When Biosecurity Isn’t Working … or Just Isn’t Happening

So far, none of the 23 people who contracted the disease from commercial poultry have experienced severe cases, but the risks are still very real. The first human death was a Louisiana patient who had contact with both wild birds and backyard poultry. The person was over age 65 and reportedly had underlying medical conditions.

And the official message to both backyard farm enthusiasts and mega-farms has been broadly the same: Biosecurity is your best weapon against the spread of disease.

But there’s a range of opinions among backyard flock owners about how seriously to take bird flu, said , a Michigan State University Extension educator who specializes in biosecurity communications.

Skeptics think that “we're making a mountain out of a molehill,” Ockert said, or that “the media is maybe blowing it out of proportion.” This means there are two types of backyard poultry enthusiasts, Ockert said: those doing great biosecurity, and those who aren’t even trying.

“I see both,” she said. “I don't feel like there's really any middle ground there for people.”

And the challenges of biosecurity are completely different for backyard coops than massive commercial barns: How are hobbyists with limited time and budgets supposed to create impenetrable fortresses for their flocks, when any standing water or trees on the property could draw wild birds carrying the virus?

Rosemary Reams, an 82-year-old retired educator in Ionia, Michigan, grew up farming and has been helping the local 4-H poultry program for years, teaching kids how to raise poultry. Now, with the bird flu outbreak, “I just don’t let people go out to my barn,” she said.

Reams even swapped real birds for kids to use while being assessed by judges at recent 4-H competitions, she said.

“We made changes to the fair last year, which I got questioned about a lot. And I said, ‘No, I gotta think about the safety of the kids.’”

Reams was shocked by the news of the death of the Louisiana backyard flock owner. She even has questioned whether she should continue to keep her own flock of 20 to 30 chickens and a pair of turkeys.

“But I love ’em. At my age, I need to be doing it. I need to be outside,” Reams said. “That’s what life is about.” She said she’ll do her best to protect herself and her 4-H kids from bird flu.

Even “the best biosecurity in the world” hasn’t been enough to save large commercial farms from infection, said Emily Metz, president and CEO of the .

The egg industry thought it learned how to outsmart this virus after the 2014-15 outbreak. Back then, “we were spreading it amongst ourselves between egg farms, with people, with trucks,” Metz said. So egg producers went into lockdown, she said, developing intensive biosecurity measures to try to block the routes of transmission from wild birds or other farms.

Metz said the measures egg producers are taking now are extensive.

“They have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in improvements, everything from truck washing stations — which is washing every truck from the FedEx man to the feed truck — and everything in between: busing in workers so that there's less foot traffic, laser light systems to prevent waterfowl from landing.”

Lateral spread, when the virus is transmitted from farm to farm, has dropped dramatically, down from 70% of cases in the last outbreak to just 15% as of April 2023, .

And yet, Metz said, “all the measures we’re doing are still getting beat by this virus.”

The Fight Over Vaccinating Birds

Perhaps the most contentious debate about bird flu in the poultry industry right now is whether to vaccinate flocks.

Given the mounting death toll for animals and the increasing risk to humans, there’s a growing push to vaccinate certain poultry against avian influenza, which countries like , , and are already doing.

In 2023, the urged nations to consider vaccination “as part of a broader disease prevention and control strategy.”

Swayne, the avian influenza expert and poultry veterinarian, works with WOAH and said most of his colleagues in the animal and public health world “see vaccination of poultry as a positive tool in controlling this panzootic in animals,” but also as a tool that reduces chances for human infection, and chances for additional mutations of the virus to become more human-adapted.

But vaccination could put poultry meat exporters (whose birds are genetically less susceptible to H5N1 than laying hens) at risk of losing billions of dollars in international trade deals. That’s because of concerns that vaccination, which lowers the severity of disease in poultry, could mask infections and bring the virus across borders, according to , a former chief veterinary officer of the USDA. Clifford is currently an adviser to the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council.

“If we vaccinate, we not only lose $6 billion potentially in exports a year,” Clifford said. “If they shut us off, that product comes back on the U.S. market. Our economists looked at this and said we would lose $18 billion domestically.”

Clifford added that would also mean the loss of “over 200,000 agricultural jobs.”

Even if those trade rules changed to allow meat and eggs to be harvested from vaccinated birds, logistical hurdles remain.

“Vaccination possibly could be on the horizon in the future, but it's not going to be tomorrow or the next day, next year, or whatever,” Clifford said.

Considering just one obstacle: No current HPAI vaccine is a perfect match for the current strain, according to the USDA. But if the virus evolves to be able to transmit efficiently from human to human, he said, “that would be a game changer for everybody, which would probably force vaccination.”

Last month, the it would “pursue a stockpile that matches current outbreak strains” in poultry.

“While deploying a vaccine for poultry would be difficult in practice and may have trade implications, in addition to uncertainty about its effectiveness, USDA has continued to support research and development in avian vaccines,” the agency said.

At this point, Metz argued, the industry can’t afford not to try vaccination, which has helped eradicate diseases in poultry before.

“We're desperate, and we need every possible tool,” she said. “And right now, we're fighting this virus with at least one, if not two, arms tied behind our back. And the vaccine can be a huge hammer in our toolbox.”

But unless the federal government acts, that tool won’t be used.

Industry concerns aside, infectious diseases physician Bhadelia said there’s an urgent need to focus on reducing the risk to humans of getting infected in the first place. And that means reducing “chances of infections in animals that are around humans, which include cows and chickens. Which is why I think vaccination to me sounds like a great plan.”

The lesson “that we keep learning every single time is that if we'd acted earlier, it would have been a smaller problem,” she said.

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