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It's lasted six years. But now welcome relief from rising U.S. health care costs seems to be winding down. Health care spending will outpace the nation's overall economic growth over the next decade, the government forecast on Tuesday, highlighting a challenge for the next president, not to mention taxpayers, businesses and individual Americans. A combination of expanded insurance coverage under President Barack Obama's law, an aging population, and rising demand will be squeezing society's ability to pay. (Alonso-Zaldivar, 7/29)

Growth in national health spending, which had dropped to historic lows in recent years, has snapped back and is set to continue at a faster pace over the next decade, federal actuaries said Tuesday. The return to bigger growth is a result of expanded insurance coverage under the 2010 health law, a revived economy and crunchtime as Medicare’s baby-boom beneficiaries enter their 70s. (Radnofsky, 7/28)

There are several major factors behind the accelerated growth over the next decade, economist Sean P. Keehan said at a press briefing Tuesday morning. More people have gained health insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act, the aging of the Baby Boomer generation and stronger economic growth will all contribute to the long-term trend, he said. Prescription drug spending has also increased markedly, largely due to the debut of expensive hepatitis C drugs over the last two years, Keehan said. (Johnson, 7/28)

Overall, health spending is expected to rise to $5.4 trillion by 2024, surpassing growth in the Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to average 4.7%. That means health spending will account for about a fifth of the U.S. economy in 2024 — 19.6% to be exact, up from 17.4% in 2013. Chapin White, a senior policy research with the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit, non-partisan research organization, says that's not necessarily going to happen -- and, in fact, none of the projections are assured. "There's a lot of uncertainty around these projections," he says, adding that what ultimately happens depends a lot on decisions and policies yet to be made. (Unger, 7/28)

However, national health spending is still expected to outpace economic growth, threatening to make medical care increasingly unaffordable. And by 2024, healthcare is projected to consume 19.6% of the economy, up from 17.4% in 2013, said the report, published in the journal Health Affairs. (Levey, 7/28)

The aging population's higher healthcare costs will also push health spending higher starting in 2019, according to a study from the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (Humer, 7/28)

But the projected hikes remain far below the historic levels of recent decades. ... Moreover, the average projected growth during the coming decade is actually down slightly from last year, when 6 percent annual increases were predicted. About 8.4 million Americans gained coverage under the ACA in 2014, according to CMS. “If you’re temporarily reaching spending growth not much above those historic lows, but in the process you’re covering millions of people, that’s a pretty good bargain,” said Paul Hughes-Cromwick, senior health economist at the Altarum Institute’s Center for Sustainable Health Spending. (Demko, 7/28)

The rapid growth of Medicare and Medicaid, however, will weigh even more heavily on the federal budget. Nearly half of total U.S. health expenses will be paid for by federal, state and local governments by 2024, according to federal projections. (Luhby, 7/28)

To experts in the economics of health care, the findings in the new paper by a team of economists and actuaries from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services are still modestly encouraging. Despite the addition of millions of people to the health care system under the Affordable Care Act, the rate of spending growth doesn’t appear to be headed back toward pre-recession rates. For the next decade and more, the annual growth rate will stay at around 5.8 percent, well below the 9 percent annual increase that was standard in the years prior to the Great Recession. (Garver, 7/29)