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It's 2016, and the health policy world’s focus will shift from Capitol Hill to the courts and the campaign trail. The courts will determine how far states can go in limiting abortion — and will also take up the House GOP lawsuit over whether the Obama administration overreached in financing the health law. The presidential contenders in both parties will keep debating the future of Obamacare and what, if anything, to do about prescription drug prices. (Haberkorn, 1/4)

ObamaCare left 2015 in a stronger position than it began, though the threats of rising premiums, skittish insurers and challenges from Washington loom for the president’s signature health law during his final year in office. The law, formally known as the Affordable Care Act, emerged largely unscathed from a government funding debate last month, a far cry from a 2013 shutdown fight in which opponents delivered fiery floor speeches against it and plotted its demise during infamous meetings at Capitol Hill’s Tortilla Coast restaurant. (Sullivan, 1/3)

Healthcare stakeholders should brace for a year of business uncertainty in 2016—an election year where the Senate and White House are up for grabs with Democrats and Republicans offering competing visions of the government's role in healthcare. The political conflict will play out across a public opinion landscape that has been transformed in recent months by high prescription drug prices, which have upstaged the Affordable Care Act as healthcare's biggest policy issue. (Meyer and Muchmore, 1/1)

Healthcare merger and acquisition activity is likely to remain strong in 2016, driven by the growth of value-based payment models. Private equity players will continue to scout out primary-care physician practices that have expertise in the managed-care environment. (Kutscher, 1/1)

While King v. Burwell made 2015 exciting, 2016 is shaping up to be a pretty exciting year for health care as well. The following are the top three news items to watch for in the new year. 1. Penalties for not having coverage skyrocket. ... 2. UnitedHealthcare stays — or leaves — the exchanges. ... 3. November’s election. Republicans running for president have promised, in one way or another, to repeal “Obamacare.” (Tolbert, 12/29)