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The numbers the health officials showed President Trump were overwhelming. With the peak of the coronavirus pandemic still weeks away, he was told, hundreds of thousands of Americans could face death if the country reopened too soon. But there was another set of numbers that also helped persuade Mr. Trump to shift gears on Sunday and abandon his goal of restoring normal life by Easter. Political advisers described for him polling that showed that voters overwhelmingly preferred to keep containment measures in place over sending people back to work prematurely. Those two realities — the dire threat to the country and the caution of the American public — proved decisive at a critical juncture in the response to the pandemic, his advisers said. (Baker and Haberman, 3/30)

The projections were grim: Even if the U.S. were to continue to do what it was doing, keeping the economy closed and most Americans in their homes, the coronavirus could leave 100,000 to 200,000 people dead and millions infected. And the totals would be far worse if the nation reopened. Those stark predictions grew even more tangible and harrowing when paired with televised images of body bags lined up at a New York City hospital not far from where President Donald Trump grew up in Queens. (Lemire, Colvin and Miller, 3/30)

As of Monday morning, it estimates that more than 2,000 people could die each day in the United States in mid-April, when the virus is predicted to hit the country hardest. The model, which is updated regularly, predicts that 224,000 hospital beds -- 61,000 more than we'll have -- will be needed on April 15, when the US is estimated to reach "peak resource use." (Azad, 3/31)

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s foremost infectious disease expert, said the president’s decision came about after he had “intensive conversations” with members of the coronavirus task force. “We convinced him. He listened,” Dr. Fauci told ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos in a Monday interview on “Good Morning America.” (Phelps and Gittleson, 3/30)

An undercurrent of political calculation has coursed through much of Trump’s decision-making on the coronavirus. Despite taking some early modest steps, the president initially spent weeks downplaying the threat of the virus, in large part because he was worried about the effect on the economy. He has also clashed with Democratic governors, especially when he has felt they are being insufficiently appreciative of the federal government’s relief efforts. And he first settled on an Easter timeline — which he has since extended to the end of April — in part because of an eagerness to reopen the economy sooner rather than later. (Parker, Dawsey and Abutaleb, 3/30)

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that federal social distancing guidelines might be toughened and travel restrictions with China and Europe would stay in place as he urged Americans to help fight the coronavirus with tough measures through April. Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said more than 1 million Americans had been tested for the coronavirus, which he called a milestone. (Holland and Mason, 3/30)

Like forecasters tracking a megastorm, White House officials are relying on statistical models to help predict the impact of the coronavirus outbreak and try to protect as many people as possible. The public could get its first close look at the Trump administration’s own projections Tuesday at the daily briefing. (Alonso-Zaldivar and Neergaard, 3/30)

When infectious pathogens have threatened the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been front and center. During the H1N1 flu of 2009, the Ebola crisis in 2014, and the mosquito-borne outbreak of Zika in 2015, the CDC has led the federal response. Yet the nation's public health agency, with its distinguished history of successfully fighting scourges such as polio and smallpox, has been conspicuously absent in recent weeks, as infections and deaths from the new coronavirus soared in the U.S. (Whitehead, 3/31)