Outdoor dining is resuming in California under state and local orders issued last week 鈥 but with covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths still far higher than they were when the bans took effect, restaurant owners and workers are wary of reopening their patios and parking lots.
Los Angeles County鈥檚 outdoor dining ban began Nov. 25, and a statewide ban, part of a , took effect Dec. 5. No clear data from contact tracing could justify outdoor dining bans, public health officials acknowledged.
New cases in California are down nearly 65% from last year鈥檚 peak on Dec. 15, but still high enough to prompt confusion about why Gov. Gavin Newsom allowed outdoor dining and other activities to resume.
As has frequently been the case during the pandemic, messaging is mixed regarding the safe way to return to outdoor dining. When California Health and Human Services Secretary Mark Ghaly to explain the lifting of the ban, a slide alongside him said, 鈥淚f you miss a friend, you can go out to eat outside at a restaurant together.鈥
But L.A. County鈥檚 new rules for outdoor dining restrict tables to .
Some scientists think the policy whiplash erodes trust in health messaging.
鈥淭he original decision to close was not data-driven, and therefore the decision to reopen wasn鈥檛 data-driven,鈥 said , a professor of medicine and an infectious diseases doctor at the University of California-San Francisco. 鈥淚t looks like you鈥檙e not cleanly following numbers and making recommendations appropriately, and that can really confuse people.鈥
Measuring the impact of outdoor dining on covid transmission is difficult because the activity changes with the seasons, and it coincides with other activities that move from indoors to outdoors in nicer weather, said , who co-authored that measured the effects of the earliest shutdown orders on covid transmission.
Covid transmission in L.A. of the outdoor dining ban, a data point suggesting that the stop played a role in curbing the spread of the coronavirus.
With conditions no better, or even worse, than they were in November, the new order 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 make sense,鈥 said Billy Silverman, owner of Salazar, a Mexican barbecue restaurant in Los Angeles.
The county department of health seemed to affirm Silverman鈥檚 observation on Friday, the first day L.A. restaurants could reopen for outdoor dining.
鈥淎lthough some restrictions were just lifted, we鈥檙e still in a very dangerous period in terms of cases, hospitalizations and deaths,鈥 said county health officer Dr. Muntu Davis. He noted on Friday that L.A. County had 7,112 new cases and 228 deaths, and that 5,855 people were hospitalized with the disease.
While much lower than in mid-January, the covid burden is far higher than it was on Nov. 22, the day the county announced the outdoor dining ban, when it reported a daily tally of .
If the covid numbers don鈥檛 improve in coming weeks, Silverman said, he can鈥檛 justify reopening his 120-seat, mostly outdoor restaurant. Though completely closed for more than half a year and then operating at 50% capacity in the fall, the business has managed to stay afloat with the help of a federal Paycheck Protection Program loan.
Silverman tried to operate with only takeout and delivery when L.A. County instituted its outdoor dining ban, but he couldn鈥檛 break even on sales to cover the labor costs. Having laid off around 65 people in March, he furloughed his workers 鈥 a much smaller kitchen crew by then 鈥 a second time in early December.
鈥淚’ve talked to a lot of staff members, and they don’t feel comfortable rushing back to a potentially hazardous situation,鈥 Silverman said. 鈥淚鈥檓 not going to do that to them.鈥
Christian Albertson, co-owner of the Monk鈥檚 Kettle tavern in San Francisco, was also stunned by the reversal.
鈥淚 can鈥檛 wrap my head around it, especially when the vaccine is so close,鈥 Albertson said. 鈥淚t just feels crazy. It is absolutely insane that we鈥檙e opening right now.鈥
The slow, uneven vaccine distribution makes this a precarious moment, said , an assistant professor at the University of Maryland school of public health. As the shots trickle out through the community, starting with the eldest and most vulnerable residents, younger service workers 鈥 many of whom live in multigenerational homes 鈥 could be put at risk if customers relax habits like mask-wearing and physical distancing, she said.
Still, Albertson plans to resume outdoor dining in mid-February, to coincide with California Craft Beer Week. He鈥檚 confident in the protocols his restaurant developed last year to keep staffers and customers safe in a 30-seat patio area. Revenue in 2020 was down 55% compared with 2019 at Monk鈥檚 Kettle; the business is being kept afloat with governmental loan programs.
鈥淚鈥檇 much rather wait a month or more and then have everyone come back permanently,鈥 he said. 鈥淩ight now, it鈥檚 鈥楥ome back, and let鈥檚 see if we can get past the first couple of weeks before cases start going up again.鈥欌
At the heart of the issue is the lack of data showing that outdoor restaurant dining has had a role in the spread of covid. The strongest research to date includes a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study that found covid-positive people were to report eating at a restaurant two weeks before getting sick. A Stanford-led study found that restaurants operating at full capacity spread as many additional covid cases as the next-worst venue, indoor gyms. Neither of these studies differentiated between indoor and outdoor seating.
In the final few months of 2020, cases were rising rapidly in Los Angeles and throughout the state, however, and officials targeted outdoor dining in the absence of anything else they could regulate. With the state鈥檚 spotty contact-tracing efforts insufficient to connect outdoor dining to disease transmission, officials gave different explanations for the ban.
L.A. County鈥檚 department of public health director, Barbara Ferrer, said it was needed because outdoor dining , raising the risk of transmission. Ghaly, the state official, said the ban had a broader aim. Transitioning to takeout and delivery 鈥渞eally has to do with the goal of trying to keep people at home, [and is] not a comment on the relative safety of outdoor dining,鈥 .
鈥淭hat was the frustrating part for us 鈥 that it was like a hunch,鈥 said of the California Restaurant Association, which represents about 22,000 restaurants in the state. 鈥淭hey had a hunch that this was probably not safe, and let鈥檚 just shut it down.鈥
Condie鈥檚 association to overturn the ban, but by then the state鈥檚 regional orders were in place. Since the orders restricted individuals from everything except work, essential errands and exercise, the group didn鈥檛 escalate its suit to the state level, as restaurants weren鈥檛 being singled out.
Restaurants, perhaps more than any other industry, have borne the brunt of back-and-forth pandemic restrictions. Up to have been laid off or furloughed since the pandemic began, according to the California Restaurant Association, and 30% of the 396 restaurant owners the association surveyed said they were at risk of closing or downsizing.
In December, California鈥檚 , the largest sector lost in the state, and most of these positions were in food services.
The loss of so many restaurant positions has made the job market extremely competitive for laid-off workers, adding pressure to job searches.
Vincent Campillo, a 38-year-old bartender in Los Angeles, lost both his jobs at the beginning of the pandemic and has been living on unemployment benefits since. He began to pick up occasional fill-in shifts toward the end of 2020.
鈥淚t鈥檚 ridiculous that L.A. is opening right now,鈥 Campillo said. 鈥淚t blows my mind and I can鈥檛 understand it.鈥
Newsom鈥檚 announcement seemed to divide the city into haves and have-nots, he said. Customers are cheering a return to outdoor restaurant dining, but Campillo is filled with dread. While young and healthy, he joked that he didn鈥檛 know if he and covid would 鈥済et along,鈥 and didn鈥檛 want to find out.
Yet Campillo said he would return to work if asked, to maintain the relationships and networks he needs to remain employed long term. He hopes to get a vaccine .
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know why I should be put in that place just so that someone can have a glass of natural wine and a charcuterie plate,鈥 Campillo said. 鈥淧eople who are desperately in need of an income have to be the ones to serve them and put themselves in harm鈥檚 way.鈥
