California鈥檚 decision to legalize marijuana was touted as a victory for those who had argued that the state needed a system to decriminalize, regulate and tax it.
But the new law, approved by voters on Nov. 8, also could be a boon to the tobacco industry at a time when cigarette smoking is down and cigarette companies are looking for ways to expand their market, according to researchers in Los Angeles County and around the state.
They warn that unless the state proceeds carefully, the legalization of marijuana for recreational use could roll back some of the gains California has made in reducing the use of tobacco.
鈥淭here is a concern that there could be a potential renormalization of smoking,鈥 said Michael Ong, associate professor at UCLA鈥檚 David Geffen School of Medicine.
Ong said it will depend on how the initiative is implemented, whether officials follow through on the regulation, and how involved public health officials are with it. 鈥淚t will be important to make sure that we don鈥檛 have a setback in terms of what we have done for clean air in California 鈥 and what we have done to reduce tobacco鈥檚 harms,鈥 he said.
Ethan Nadelmann, executive director of the Drug Policy Alliance, which supports marijuana legalization,聽said聽there is聽no evidence聽that it聽leads to increased聽cannabis consumption — or tobacco smoking.
California鈥檚 adult smoking rate is the second-lowest in the country, at 11.6 percent, according to the . The smoking rate dropped by more than 50 percent between 1988 and 2014, cutting health care costs and reducing tobacco-related diseases, according to the department.
The headway against smoking over the past few decades is due to a combination of factors, including tobacco taxes, laws restricting where people can smoke, and broad-based media campaigns and programs to help people quit. Despite the decline in smoking, the use of e-cigarettes has increased dramatically over the past few years, with nearly 10 percent of adults ages 18 through 24 now using them, according to the department.
Another ballot initiative passed by voters last week could push the smoking rate even lower, experts said. Prop. 56 adds $2 per pack to the tax on cigarettes and increases taxes on electronic cigarettes that contain nicotine and other tobacco products. The money will help pay for health care and increase funding for tobacco control and prevention.
The marijuana initiative, Prop. 64, allows adults ages 21 and over to grow, buy and possess small amounts of marijuana for personal use. It also regulates recreational marijuana businesses and imposes taxes that will help pay for drug education and prevention programs.
Bonnie Halpern-Felsher, pediatrics professor at the Stanford University School of Medicine, said she is concerned that there may not be enough education and prevention written into the proposition, especially targeted at youth.
Marijuana is already the most widely used illegal drug among adolescents. Many young people consider marijuana, and blunts (marijuana rolled with a tobacco leaf wrapper), to be more socially acceptable and less risky than cigarettes, according to a co-authored by Halpern-Felsher. The study also found that youths who saw messages about the benefits of marijuana were more likely to use it.
Blunts, Halpern-Felsher said, are particularly worrisome because they contain nicotine as well as marijuana. She said many young people may not understand the risk of blunts or marijuana, and once they start thinking that smoking one product is acceptable, they may believe it鈥檚 OK聽to smoke other things as well. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 my concern,鈥 she said. 鈥淚 do think people are going to generalize.鈥
From the tobacco industry鈥檚 point of view, marijuana could serve as a 鈥渟moke inhalation trainer,鈥 and thus become a gateway to tobacco use, said Robert K. Jackler, a professor at the Stanford School of Medicine.
Jackler, who researches tobacco advertising, said tobacco and marijuana are similarly marketed — as products to help people relax and ease their stress. 鈥淭here is tremendous overlap potential,鈥 he said.
Tobacco companies could easily try to exploit that to enter the marijuana market, Jackler said. They already have enormous influence on state laws and regulations and could try to set up small dispensaries and make marijuana another one of their products.
鈥淭he tobacco industry is always looking for replacement products because, at least in America, smoking is down,鈥 he said. 鈥淭his will give them a new entry into the market. They are best equipped to exploit this market opportunity.鈥
In fact, the tobacco industry considered getting into the marijuana market in the 1960s and 70s and could easily do so, said Stanton Glantz, a professor at University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine. Glantz believes that even as the newly approved tobacco tax reduces California鈥檚 smoking rate further, legalized marijuana will help sustain the tobacco market. He said he expected to see mass marketing and branding of marijuana over time.
Along with some therapeutic benefits of marijuana, there are also health risks, Glantz said. 鈥淭he likely costs that are going to be incurred by all the marijuana-induced diseases don鈥檛 come close to being covered by the taxes that are written into Prop. 64,鈥 he warned.
The initiative should have included higher taxes, graphic warning labels, provisions to keep demand low and a broad-based education campaign like there is on tobacco, Glantz argued. 鈥淭he ideal situation is where it鈥檚 legal so nobody is thrown in jail, but nobody wants to buy it.鈥
Legalization supporters said they don鈥檛 believe the tobacco industry will get involved in the marijuana market until and unless federal prohibition ends. Marijuana is still illegal under federal law.
Nadelmann, of聽the Drug Policy Alliance, said聽it is misguided to conflate the two products.聽Young people can distinguish between the effects of聽cigarettes and聽marijuana, he said.
鈥淭eenagers are actually smarter than most of the adult propaganda,鈥 Nadelmann said. 鈥淭hey know smoking cigarettes is really stupid and that smoking marijuana is not such a major issue.鈥